Baltimore, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

359
FXUS61 KLWX 091730
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA
130 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong area of high pressure will become centered overhead
today before pushing offshore later tonight. An upper- level low
pressure system will bring additional rain to the area at times
between late Thursday and Saturday. High pressure returns again
over by Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Late morning visible satellite loop shows clear skies across
the bulk of the Mid Atlantic region with nothing more than some
flat fair weather cu as you head up into Central PA.

High pressure will continue to build overhead and with abundant
sun for the rest of the day temps will rebound to more
comfortable levels compared to this morning chill.

Highs will be in the low to mid 50s this afternoon as winds
switch back out of the south, but remain very light throughout
the day.

Clouds increase from the west late today/this evening with
showers moving into the WVA and MD Panhandles after midnight,
with some showers reaching the 1-95 corridor by daybreak Thu.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
The upper-level pattern will become more amplified toward the
end of the week. The initial shortwave and associated low
pressure system will approach on Thursday. Rain chances will
increase Thursday as the warm front associated with this system
lifts into the area. This of course will also come with an
increase in temperatures back to the upper 50s to low 60s for
areas along and south of the front. However, highs north of the
front remain in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Friday is when the bulk of rainfall is expected at this time.
Recent model guidance really seems to be keying in on this
Friday timeframe for heavier rainfall over the region. However,
rain may even continue into Saturday. Rainfall totals are
mentioned in the long term discussion below, as the event
lingers into that timeframe. As always with cutoff lows, even
though model guidance is seemingly coming to a consensus, these
are very tricky forecasts. At any rate, it is becoming more
likely that we see a significant rainfall from this system, and
perhaps in a beneficial way. However, in a worst case scenario,
we could potentially be dealing with some flooding issues Friday
night. So, will be something to watch as we get a bit closer in
time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level energy digging southeast through the mid MS and TN
Valley will carve out a deep/slow moving 500mb trough over the
Eastern US by Friday. The latest HREF indicates rain will reach
areas to the west of I-95 by 00Z/8pm Thu then expand across the
entire forecast area by 12Z/8am Friday morning.

A large upper trough will slowly slide across most of the East
Coast through the weekend. Most of the guidance indicates at
least a large portion of the trough tries to cut off. Still, the
cutoff low remains entangled within the larger synoptic wave
pattern. Models still differ on where the cutoff low is
positioned this weekend. This could have a big impact on where
the surface low develops/tracks, and what locations any heavier
rainfall.

The latest WPC QPF through 8pm Saturday shows widespread 1-2
inch rainfall totals. Local amounts to 3" are possible and WPC
has maintained a level 1 out of 4/marginal risk of excessive
rainfall. The primary concern remains urban based flooding
given the ongoing moderate to severe drought conditions D1-D2.
The bulk of the rainfall is likely to be beneficial as it falls
over a relatively long (24-36) duration, but will need to
monitor for localized hourly totals >=1" in the "right spots"
that could lead to minor flooding particularly in urban areas.

The upper trough and surface low move offshore at the start of
next week, with mid-level ridging building in. Temperatures in
the 50s/60s over the weekend quickly jump to the 70s for Monday
and Tuesday of next week. A weak/decaying cold front approaches
from the west. However, this is not expected to bring much of
any precip to the area (aside from a few mountain showers).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure persists through Wednesday, which should keep
winds light (shifting to S this afternoon) and conditions VFR.
Southerly winds may gust to around 20 kt Thursday. Sub-VFR
conditions due to low ceilings and rain are possible late
Thursday night, but most likely into Friday.

Widespread rain shower coverage will bring IFR to LIFR
conditions at the terminals off and on Friday. There are
discrepancies since we are 3 and 4 days out from a possible cut-
off low. Coverage and intensity are still uncertain based on the
multiple model solutions, but something to keep in mind. Winds
east becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots Friday and Friday night.

Sub-VFR conditions could continue into the first part of the
weekend, though it will ultimately depend on the position of a broad
surface low. Conditions do likely improve with VFR conditions
returning Saturday night into Sunday as the low pressure moves away.
Northwest winds Sunday afternoon could gust around 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure is moving overhead late this morning and will
gradually move offshore throughout the day today. Sub-SCA
conditions expected at this time.

SCA conditions are possible again Thursday into Thursday night
with southerly flow developing ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Additionally, rain chances return late Thursday with
this approaching system.

Small Craft Advisories is possible on Friday into Friday
evening as an area of low pressure tracks near/through the
region. SCA conditions will rely on where the aforementioned low
tracks, so certainty is low at this time.

Northerly channeling Saturday into Saturday night could result low-
end SCA conditions over the water (thinking gusts around 18-20
knots). As an area of low pressure near the region moves offshore
Saturday night into Sunday, northwest winds develop in its wake.
These winds increase Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon, with SCA
conditions becoming more likely during this time. High pressure
builds into the area Sunday night, bringing winds below SCA
levels.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...DHOF/CJL
LONG TERM...KRR/MRS
AVIATION...Lambert
MARINE...Lambert